The moment of truth! The year-long battle for the White House is coming to its conclusion!

Tomorrow, voters in all states will determine the next US president in one of the most unpredictable elections in US history. Many people will be celebrating and many will be disappointed when the final votes are counted a little over 24 hours from now.

Donald Trump managed to achieve a miraculous recovery of his campaign just 2 weeks before election day. Currently, Hillary Clinton has about 76% chance of winning the election. Donald Trump’s chances for a direct win are about 11%. There is also a significant probability of 13-14% for a tie between the candidates, which would send the contest to the US Congress!

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This is an update to the main post from September 20. Please click on the link for a detailed description of the election process and how we model it to make the predictions you see below. Click here to go back to the daily predictions page.

You can click on the date above the map to check the predictions for other dates. You can also click on different states on the map to see our state-specific predictions.

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This is an update to the main post from two weeks ago. Please click on the link for a detailed description of the election process and how we model it to make the predictions you see below.

You can click on the date above the map to check the predictions for other dates. You can also click on different states on the map to see our state-specific predictions.  Click here to go back to the daily predictions page.

[Read more…]

November 7 UPDATE: click here to view our final update post where we give our latest analyses just a day before the election!
Click here to go to our daily predictions page.

In the first 10 posts I mostly concentrated on theoretical topics. But the general focus of this blog is much broader. For the first time I’m going to show an actual application of probability theory for estimating real life events.

An ongoing event many people are closely following right now is the US presidential election. The primary season officially concluded at the end of July and now the general election battle is in full swing. The main clash is between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) and businessman Donald Trump (R). Clinton and Trump are challenged by 3^rd party candidates Gary Johnson from the Libertarian Party (a two-time former governor of New Mexico) and Jill Stein from the Green Party (a physician and a political activist).

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