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Combinatorics: An Intuitive Introduction

Posted on May 3, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 5 Comments

Rubik's cube

Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics with applications in fields like physics, economics, computer programming, and many others. In particular, probability theory is one of the fields that makes heavy use of combinatorics in a wide variety of … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Combinatorics Tagged With: Permutation, Set

Calculating Compound Event Probabilities

Posted on April 29, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 5 Comments

Venn diagram of three events

You can think of probabilities as measures of uncertainty in the occurrence of an event, the truth of a hypothesis, and so on. These measures are numbers between 0 and 1. Zero means the event is impossible to occur and 1 means the event is … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Fundamental Concepts, Probability Theory & Statistics Tagged With: Conditional probability, Sample space, Set

Probability: What Is It, Really?

Posted on April 8, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 12 Comments

A ruler, a pen and a calculator on a notebook.

Throughout history, we have come up with better and more accurate ways to measure physical quantities like time, length, mass, and temperature. This has been crucial for our scientific and technological development. Each of these quantities has a … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Fundamental Concepts, Measures Tagged With: Coin flip, History, Law of large numbers, Probability axioms, Sample space

Coin Bias Calculation Using Bayes’ Theorem

Posted on March 21, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 23 Comments

An ancient Greek coin with an unusual shape and lopsidedness

Why do people flip coins to resolve disputes? It usually happens when neither of two sides wants to compromise with the other about a particular decision. They choose the coin to be the unbiased agent that decides whose way things are going to … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Applications, Bayes' Theorem Tagged With: Coin flip, Parameter estimation, Python

Intuitive Explanation of P-Values

Posted on March 14, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 13 Comments

"P-values are tricky to understand, p

If you ever took an introductory course in statistics or attempted to read a publication in a scientific journal, you know what p-values are. Оr at least you've seen them. Most of the time they appear in the "results" section of a paper, attached to … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Fundamental Concepts, Measures, Probability Theory & Statistics Tagged With: Null hypothesis, P-value

The Inverse Problem and Bayes’ Theorem

Posted on March 6, 2016 Written by The Cthaeh 7 Comments

The domino effect illustrated with gray domino tiles in the process of falling one by one.

The inverse problem is fundamentally related to the subject of causality. Think about a scenario... What will happen if you grab a solid rock and throw it at your neighbor's window? The most common result is that the window will break. If your … [Continue reading]

Filed Under: Applications, Bayes' Theorem Tagged With: Causality

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